ESTIMATING THE UPS AND DOWNS
The amount of water stored in Bull Shoals and how the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Southwestern Power Administration direct its flow through the dam are the most powerful influences on the river. In a matter of hours, water may rise or fall 8 to 10 feet, and releases can start, stop or taper off at any time. The dam’s eight generators output a maximum of 26,400 cubic feet of water per second.

It’s impossible to make pinpoint predictions about flows, but information is available to help you plan better and safer trips on the White. You’ll have to crunch a few numbers, but the math is no tougher than what it takes to buy some Vienna sausages and crackers and split a tank of gas with your fishing buddy at your favorite convenience store.

When Mike Tipton of the Northwest Arkansas Fly Fishers plans a White River trip, he uses a formula which suggests that water moves downstream 2 1/2 m.p.h. when up to three generators are in operation, 3 m.p.h. with three to six generators running, and 3.25 m.p.h. for six to eight generators. These estimates include ranges because the generators do not all have the same capacity, and they’re not always run at maximum output.

Here’s an example of using Tipton’s formulas: Assume that five generators are running and you want to know when rising water will reach Rim Shoals, 24 miles from the dam. Divide the distance downstream in miles (24) by the mph factor for five generators (3) to arrive at an estimate of 8 hours for water to rise at Rim Shoals.

If you were fly fishing near the dam, you’d use this information to get out of the rising water safely and add several hours to your fishing day by driving to a downstream access. Or if you were fishing from a boat, you might head upriver, then follow the surging water downstream for the excellent fishing that accompanies rising water.

Other systems suggest that water moves at 5 mph with all eight generators cranking or that you can use a general factor of 3 mph for rough estimates. However, it’s difficult to account for all the variables, such as rainfall and pre-release water levels.

Below the White’s confluence with the North Fork, you must also consider flow from Norfork Dam, which can up the estimating factors by a couple of miles per hour. See the end of this article for information about obtaining a book from the North Arkansas Fly Fishers that contains tables to help you adjust to rising and falling water.

Eventually, the water that goes up must come down. Although the same variables apply, you can roughly estimate how many hours it takes for 90 percent of the water to fall out of a specific area, Tipton advised. Once again, determine how many miles downstream the spot is and divide by 2. For Rim Shoals, 24 miles below the dam, the water would near its pre-release level in 12 hours.

Armed with that information, a fly angler would head upstream to find shallower water, while a boater might continue fishing downstream, where stable or slowly rising water levels usually mean good fishing.

GENERATION INFORMATION
It’s always wise to check water levels before you fish. Call (870) 431-5311 for Corps of Engineers recordings that describe how many generators are running, how long they’ve been in operation (or when the last period of generation occurred) and the current lake level.

These recordings describe flood-control and hydropower releases from Bull Shoals and Norfork dams. At Bull Shoals, 654 feet above mean sea level represents the top of the conservation pool or the lake’s “normal” level. (At Norfork, normal level is 550 feet Sept.-April and 554 April-Sept.) When the lake is a foot or more above normal, you can often expect round-the-clock generation and high-water fishing tactics.